Saturday, December 18, 2010

Hall of Fame Stats

I thought this might help with HOF voting. Stats highlighted in yellow are top 5 career records.





Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Max Contracts - Position Players

With that said, I wanted to see how players who earned max contracts performed under those contracts. Do they put up good stats? How do those stats compare to the offensive performance of the team and replacement players? Do teams win more games after handing out these contracts? Maybe answering these questions will give us a little more insight as to whether big contracts produce a suitable return.

I thought there would be more info available going into this. I could only find 4 max contract position players. It probably has something to do with the olden days, where players rated 90 overall would sign $8 million extensions with their controlling franchise.

I've defined a max contract as any contract that totaled $80 million or more. I only found four position players, but please let me know of anyone I missed.

So here are our four candidates with their average seasonal performances:



It certainly looks like Lou Luke is working out well. The 50 HR's and .324 BA are quite attractive. When comparing Chip Greenwood to the rest, it should be noted that he is the only skill player of the group. Greenwood played the last two seasons at SS, and looks like a 3B for the next few seasons. His low BA (.268) doesn't bode well, but 30 HR's from the SS position is quite nice. Aaron Gonzales has some nice pop, and Jesus Park has an attractive BA & OBP.

Let's compare these players to replacement players. WIS doesn't make it easy to research and find a replacement players, so I had to do some digging on my own. This is extremely arbitrary. I found one guy, Vic Bolivar, who is probably better than a replacement player, and signed a substantial contract (5 years $5.6 per). I used two more guys who were signed for cheap, and could be had by anybody (Elmer Fabregas and Ernest Bichette). I think these guys encompass the "replacement player" theory better than Bolivar. (Aside, nice signings, GM's.)



Now let's look at each player's Runs Created, how that compared to the total runs their teams scored, and how much money these runs cost.



How about that Lou Luke? He's managed to create about 18% of his team's runs during his max contract, well above the production that Gonzales, Greenwood, and Park contribute. And when you compare their RC to their contract, Luke looks even better, costing "just" $113,163 per run created last season. Compare that to Gonzales' lowest of $184,070, Greenwood of $180,978, and Park of $135,510.

I found it interesting that the "replacement players" scored a significant amount of their team's runs. Bolivar scored 12%, which is comparable or better than Gonzales' rate, at a fraction of the cost. This information also tells me that the first 50-80 runs are cheap, the next 25 runs are marginally more expensive, and from there the costs rises steeply.

OK, final topic. A quick look at how these contracts impact wins. I'll be the first to admit that we are dealing with a small sample size in all data accumulated thus far. It's even more so with a team's win total. Lots of outside factors can cause giant swings in a team's win total from year to year. I'm not putting too much weight in this data, but thought it would be a good idea to get it down for the record. As we accumulate more information, maybe we will start to see a pattern.



Final analysis: It looks like Luke is earning his contract and then some. Park, in my opinion, looks pretty good. I think if he can keep his RC over 120, his contract will be justified. Greenwood, as I said, is a SS and should be evaluated differently. He has spent some time on the DL these last couple of years, so if he can stay healthy going forward, he could pay some dividends on his GM's investment. Finally, Gonzales, well, that contract doesn't look good. I think Luke, Park, and Gonzales show us what we can expect if we sign a good, medium, and poor max contract.

Thursday, December 2, 2010

100 Win Seasons: Season 18 Update

Season 18 went to the Atlanta Swabbies, giving graybeard his 1st WS title in Gehrig but his 7th overall Hardball Dynasty title. Season 18 was the season of parity as only two teams, Vancouver in the AL and Fresno in the NL, won 100+ games. This also marks the first time since Season 13 when a team won the World Series with less than 100 wins.




Click on the image for a larger, and easier to read, image.

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Season 18 Wrap-up

In a World Series matching up two franchises vying for their first championship, the Atlanta Swabbies took care of the Fresno Mendozas 4 games to 1 to cap and unlikely run to the title. The Swabbies, the AL six seed, started their playoff run by defeating Season 17 champions Rochester in five games, then defeated #2 seed Richmond also in 5 games, before winning four in a row after dropping the first game of the ALCS to Jacksonville. The Mendozas, coming to the World Series as the #1 seed in the NL and having amassed the second best record in the ML, lost the first two games of the series in extra innings and never quite got their bats going.

This marks the third season in a row that the World Series went to the AL, who now lead the all time series 11 championships to 7 over the NL.

Congratulations to graybeard and the Swabbies management on a wonderful season.

Season 1. San Juan Clementes (mazz993) - AL

Season 2. Seattle Pilots (threester) - AL

Season 3. Scranton Shrutes (mookie79) - AL

Season 4. Jacksonville betelnut (cpkung) - AL

Season 5. Jacksonville betelnut (cpkung) - AL

Season 6. Wichita Wallabies (jdbkaput) - NL

Season 7. Seattle Pilots (threester) - AL

Season 8. Monterrey Pepper Jacks (tooly_mctool) - NL

Season 9. Ottawa Sundragons (sundragons) - NL

Season 10. San Juan Myrmidons (doontristy) - NL

Season 11.
Monterrey Pepper Jacks (tooly_mctool) - NL

Season 12. San Juan Myrmidons (doontristy) - NL

Season 13. Durham Donkeyfish (armst24) - AL

Season 14. Scranton Schrutes (mookie79) - AL

Season 15. San Juan Myrmidons (doontristy) - NL

Season 16. Durham Donkeyfish (armst24) - AL

Season 17. Rochester North Stars (hypnotoad) - AL

Season 18. Atlanta Swabbies (graybeard) - AL

Breakdown:
AL - 11 World Series
NL- 7 World Series

Monday, August 30, 2010

100 Win Seasons: Season 17 Update

Season 17 went to the Rochester North Stars, giving hypnotoad his 1st WS title in Gehrig, and 3rd overall. This marks the 9th season that a team with 100+ wins has taken the title home, and fourth season in a row.


Click on the image for a larger, and easier to read, image.

Saturday, August 28, 2010

Season 17 Wrap-up

It took the North Stars 11 seasons to come back to the World Series, but after having failed to win it all back in Season 6, the North Stars captured the hardware after defeating the Charleston Chitlins in an exciting 7 game series. The North Stars, the AL #2 seed also required 7 games to capture the AL pennant, and they did so after being down two games to one in both series. The North Stars unofficial playoffs MVP had to be Cap DiSarcina, who went 6-0 pitching 46 and a third innings with a 2.33 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over 7 games. More importantly DiSarcina won both his starts against the Chitlins while throwing 15 scoreless innings.

This marks back-to-back World Series championships for an original franchise of Gehrig World as well as back-to-back titles for the AL.

Congratulations to hypnotoad and the North Stars management on a wonderful season.

Season 1. San Juan Clementes (mazz993) - AL

Season 2. Seattle Pilots (threester) - AL

Season 3. Scranton Shrutes (mookie79) - AL

Season 4. Jacksonville betelnut (cpkung) - AL

Season 5. Jacksonville betelnut (cpkung) - AL

Season 6. Wichita Wallabies (jdbkaput) - NL

Season 7. Seattle Pilots (threester) - AL

Season 8. Monterrey Pepper Jacks (tooly_mctool) - NL

Season 9. Ottawa Sundragons (sundragons) - NL

Season 10. San Juan Myrmidons (doontristy) - NL

Season 11.
Monterrey Pepper Jacks (tooly_mctool) - NL

Season 12. San Juan Myrmidons (doontristy) - NL

Season 13. Durham Donkeyfish (armst24) - AL

Season 14. Scranton Schrutes (mookie79) - AL

Season 15. San Juan Myrmidons (doontristy) - NL

Season 16. Durham Donkeyfish (armst24) - AL

Season 17. Rochester North Stars (hypnotoad) - AL

Breakdown:
AL - 10 World Series
NL- 7 World Series

Saturday, May 29, 2010

Season 16 Wrap-up

The Durham Donkeyfish cruised to their 2nd World Series title after defeating the NL Champs San Juan Myrmidons four games to one. The Donkeyfish outscored San Juan 32-20 during the series, and just offered a balanced game of solid pitching and hitting that the Myrmidons could not overcome.

The Donkeyfish, one of Gehrig's original franchises, have turned into a perennial powerhouse. After only going to the playoffs once in their first 11 seasons, they have made the World Series 3 of the last 5 seasons and claimed two championships.

Congratulations to armst24 and the Donkeyfish management on another wonderful season.

Season 1. San Juan Clementes (mazz993) - AL

Season 2. Seattle Pilots (threester) - AL

Season 3. Scranton Shrutes (mookie79) - AL

Season 4. Jacksonville betelnut (cpkung) - AL

Season 5. Jacksonville betelnut (cpkung) - AL

Season 6. Wichita Wallabies (jdbkaput) - NL

Season 7. Seattle Pilots (threester) - AL

Season 8. Monterrey Pepper Jacks (tooly_mctool) - NL

Season 9. Ottawa Sundragons (sundragons) - NL

Season 10. San Juan Myrmidons (doontristy) - NL

Season 11.
Monterrey Pepper Jacks (tooly_mctool) - NL

Season 12. San Juan Myrmidons (doontristy) - NL

Season 13. Durham Donkeyfish (armst24) - AL

Season 14. Scranton Schrutes (mookie79) - AL

Season 15. San Juan Myrmidons (doontristy) - NL

Season 16. Durham Donkeyfish (armst24) - AL

Breakdown:
AL - 9 World Series
NL- 7 World Series

100 Win Seasons: Update

Season 16 went to the Durham Donkeyfish, giving armst24 his 2nd WS title in Gehrig. This marks the 8th season that a team with 100+ wins has taken the title home, and third season in a row.

Click on the image for a larger, and easier to read, image.

Sunday, May 2, 2010

Bullpen Effectiveness

Season 16, through May 2 AM

Team IR IRS IRS %


Burlington 85 19 22%

Rochester 145 34 23%

Charlotte 155 37 24%

Salem 94 23 24%

Pawtucket 262 66 25%

Vancouver 108 27 25%

Atlanta 92 23 25%

Oklahoma City 183 49 27%

Arizona 147 40 27%

NY Mets 121 33 27%

Salt Lake City 145 40 28%

Mexico City 137 39 28%

Richmond 142 41 29%

San Juan 141 41 29%

Seattle 111 32 29%

St Louis 145 44 30%

Indy 117 35 30%

Boise 109 33 30%

Fresno 133 43 32%

Helena 121 39 32%

NY Skyscrapers 113 36 32%

Santa Cruz 105 34 32%

New Orleans 108 36 33%

Scranton 96 32 33%

Jacksonville 186 63 34%

Durham 118 40 34%

Philly 148 55 37%

Charleston 136 50 37%

Wichita 136 51 38%

Ottawa 119 45 38%

Little Rock 140 54 39%

Chicago 118 51 43%

Monday, March 1, 2010

Season 15 Wrap-up

The San Juan Myrmidons won their third Gehrig World series after beating the Vancouver NewMoneyManiacs four games to one. Freddy Garcia got 2 of the 4 wins for San Juan, providing a fitting end to a season that saw Garcia win his 6th NL Cy Young.

The Myrmidons cruised to the title, winning 8 of the next 10, after struggling to beat the Salem Witchhunt in five games of the Division Championship Series.

Congratulations to doontristy and the Myrmidons management on another wonderful season.

Season 1. San Juan Clementes (mazz993) - AL

Season 2. Seattle Pilots (threester) - AL

Season 3. Scranton Shrutes (mookie79) - AL

Season 4. Jacksonville betelnut (cpkung) - AL

Season 5. Jacksonville betelnut (cpkung) - AL

Season 6. Wichita Wallabies (jdbkaput) - NL

Season 7. Seattle Pilots (threester) - AL

Season 8. Monterrey Pepper Jacks (tooly_mctool) - NL

Season 9. Ottawa Sundragons (sundragons) - NL

Season 10. San Juan Myrmidons (doontristy) - NL

Season 11.
Monterrey Pepper Jacks (tooly_mctool) - NL

Season 12. San Juan Myrmidons (doontristy) - NL

Season 13. Durham Donkeyfish (armst24) - AL

Season 14. Scranton Schrutes (mookie79) - AL

Season 15. San Juan Myrmidons (doontristy) - NL

Breakdown:
AL - 8 World Series
NL- 7 World Series

Sunday, February 28, 2010

100 Win Seasons: Update

Season 15 went to the San Juan Myrmidons, giving doontristy his 3rd WS title in Gehrig. This marks the 7th season that a team with 100+ wins has taken the title home, with San Juan accounting for 3 of the 7 teams.


Click on the image for a larger version.

Friday, January 15, 2010

A New Era

The end of the PED era has meant a strong reduction in the amount of offense, as seen specifically in Runs scored (R) and Home Runs (HR) hit. But just how much of an adjustment and how does any of this compare to the MLB numbers the last 15 years (1995-2009 seasons)?


First off, the MLB averages for R, HR, stolen bases (SB), Slugging percentage (SLG), and On base percentage plus slugging percentage (OPS) have not varied that much over the last 15 years. This may make you wonder whether that is because we are still in the PED era.

On the other hand, the end of the PED era in Gehrig has taken a dramatic hit. The catch comes in that we have only played about half a season (76 games exactly) in Gehrig, but so far the trends are dramatic. Averages for runs scored are down from 5.21 per game on season 14 to 4.55 per game this season. Average HRs are down from 1.44 per game, season 14, to 0.93 per game this season. SLG is down from 0.443 on season 14, down to 0.396 this season, whereas OPS is down from 0.780 to 0.730 this season.

A statistic that should not be affected by PEDs, at least in Gehrig, SBs remains pretty constant from the last few seasons.

A cursory look at other numbers like 2Bs (1.44 per game season 14, 1.39 this season) and 3Bs (0.167 per game season 14, 0.145 this season), also suggest that the main effect is being seen in HRs, but not in other extra base hits. This is somewhat interesting in that if the ball is kept in the park more, maybe extra base hits would have been expected to at least move up a bit.

The take home point? It's a great year to be a pitcher.