Monday, March 21, 2011

Season 20 Preview - AL West

ARIZONA:
FA Signings: Diego Abreu (P), Rob Holbert (P)
Both players are over 30 but can still contribute to the Sun Devils. Holbert and his sub-4.00 ERa was taken from division rival Vancouver; Abreu is another refugee from the NL via Burlington.

Trade Acquisitions: None

Losses: Elmer Fabregas (OF), Jose Mercedes (3B)

Last Season: 85-77, 3rd place AL West
Runs: 787 (9th)
ERA: 4.23 (6th)
Fielding: .981 (11th) 65/35 +/-

Conclusion: Not many changes in the desert, despite the error prone defense and an inconsistent offense. This is a loaded division and Arizona has a tough assignment in getting past either Salt Lake City or Vancouver.



SALT LAKE CITY:
FA Signings: None

Trade Acquisitions: Midre Owen (3B), Santos Bennett ( C)
Owen is a powerful experienced bat, replacing the young Richard Tanaka. Bennett is an offensive minded Catcher who is coming off a career year in Scottsdale.

Losses: Ernie Bichette (1B), Arthur Clement ( C), Richard Tanaka (3B)

Last Season: 101-61, 2nd place AL West
Runs: 919 (2nd)
ERA: 3.81 (2nd)
Fielding: .989 (1st) 77/20 +/-

Conclusion: It’s hard to imagine the Burners getting better, but it looks like they did by upgrading at Catcher and Third Base. Loaded with stars and with no holes in their game they will probably be looking at another 100+ win season.


VANCOUVER:
FA Signings: Rick Mills ( C), Hector Espinosa (RP), Daniel Leach (P), Louie Delgaldo (RP), Brian Yosida (RP)
Rebuilding the bullpen would appear to be the priority in Vancouver this off season. Although none of the signed are aces, they should all strengthen the ‘maniacs pen. Mills is a defensive backstop.

Trade Acquisitions: None

Losses: Rob Holbert (RP), Marino Martin (SP), Cy Corcoran (3B), Rafael Guillon (C/DH)

Last Season: 116-46, 1st place AL West

Runs: 1054 (1st)
ERA: 3.71 (1st)
Fielding: .986 (T3rd) 90/13 +/-

Conclusion: Vancouver’s days of playing Candyland in the regular season (only for it to turn into grandmaster-level chess in the playoffs) may be over. Martin is as solid a starting pitcher as Corcoran is a third baseman, and Guillon is an elite bat. All are no longer present. There is some young talent here, and the bullpen has been upgraded - no doubt this is still an elite team. The contests with SLC should mimic the Yankees-Red Sox in the ratings.



SANTA CRUZ:
FA Signings: Rico Rosa (RP), Cy Corcoran (3B), Edgar Estrada (2B), Anthony Moore ( C), Brandon Bell (SS), Geraldo Vargas (P)
The infield is both transformed and upgraded with the additions of Estrada, Corcoran and Bell. Rosa is an effective RP but will only pitch 30-40 innings. Moore is a defensive catcher. Vargas is returning ‘home’ at age 38.

Trade Acquisitions: None

Losses: Brian Hyun (SS), Angel Cedeno (RP), Mark Delucci (IF)

Last Season: 68-94, 4th place AL West
Runs: 680 (13th)
ERA: 4.54 (7th)
Fielding: .980 (12th) 49/46 +/-

Conclusion: Most teams would finish 4th in this division, and El Santas Loco are no exception. Although they have taken great strides in addressing their biggest problems from last (offense and fielding), I doubt it’s enough to catch up with Arizona.


Hypno’s Projected Order of Finish:
1. Salt Lake City
2. Vancouver
3. Arizona
4. Santa Cruz

Sunday, March 20, 2011

Season 20 Preview - AL South

RICHMOND:
FA Signings: Wilfredo James (3B), Justin Miles (3B/SS)
Nothing big here - the Really Big Deal is re-signing the incomparable Damon Prinz to a max contract. He’s won 2 Cy Young’s already and if he stays healthy will surely be in the running for another.

Trade Acquisitions: None

Losses: Yoo-nah Masato (RP), Sammy Mesa (OF), RJ Torres (3B/SS), Pedro Santos (SS)

Last season: 99-63, 1st place AL South; WS champs
Runs: 916 (3rd)
ERA: 3.96 (4th)
Fielding: .986 (T3rd) 65/46 +/-

Conclusion: With the resigning of Prinz, people can safely ignore any ideas of ‘rebuilding’ in Richmond for season 20. Still a very strong team, the immediate question is can James and Miles replace the value of Torres and Santos. It is a young team at the ML level, but not much is available in AAA. Bigtuna has done a fantastic rebuilding job in Richmond worthy of study by all potential rebuilders.



ATLANTA:
FA Signings: None

Trade Acquisitions: None

Losses: Vincente Ibarra (P), Deion Long (RP)

Last season: 92-70, 2nd Place AL South
Runs: 786 (10th)
ERA: 3.87 (3rd)
Fielding: .988 (T2nd) 83/11 +/-

Conclusion: Pitching and defense have been the hallmark of Swabbie play through the years and season 20 should be no exception. Just one year removed from a world championship, Atlanta remains almost unchanged from last years team. They do have some talent in AAA, but not of the impact variety.


CHARLOTTE:
FA Signings: Yorvit Sojo (OF)
A big time, MVP-like bat, Sojo comes to the AL via pitcher friendly Burlington. His numbers will be due to jump up.

Trade Acquisitions: Pedro Santos (SS/3B)
The 2nd big bat to be added to the lineup - look out AL South pitching.

Losses: Wilfredo James (3B), Al Chantres (1B/DH), Edwin Lush (OF)

Last Season: 90-72, 3rd place AL South
Runs: 843 (6th)
ERA: 4.10 (5th)
Fielding: .984 (T8th) 74/30 +/-

Conclusion: Talented newcomers in Sojo and Santos, plus good young players who cut their teeth last season or who start the year in AAA should make a big difference for the Driskills this season. Is it enough to hurdle past both Atlanta and Richmond?


SANTA FE:
FA Signings: None

Trade Acquisitions: None

Losses: Brian Shinjo (CF), Sidney Tessmer (SP), Enrique Mendez (RP), Tony Yamamoto (SP)

Last Season: 61-101, 4th place AL South
Runs: 776 (11th)
ERA: 6.28 (14th)
Fielding: .978 (T13th) 59/82 +/-

Conclusion: With 14 players on the ML roster having under a years’ worth of ML experience, it is hard to figure Santa Fe out. Eight Rule V selections were made, and many very high draft picks were obtained through trading. This year may not be the year they figure it out in Santa Fe, but look out AL South over the next few seasons.


Hypno’s Projected Order of Finish:
1. Richmond
2. Charlotte
3. Atlanta
4. Santa Fe

Season 20 Preview - AL East

JACKSONVILLE:
FA Signings: Vincente Ibarra (P)
The 40-year old Ibarra signed cheaply towards the end of spring training.

Trade Acquisitions: Lenny Small(OF), Jose Lopez (RP), Miguel Mendez (CF), Bucky Byrnes (RP)
Small still has some pop in his bat (27 homers last season in Detroit, a pitchers’ park). Lopez is a quality closer, swapped with Detroit for last years closer Meyer. The speedy Mendez has won 2 Gold Gloves in center.

Losses: Nigel Walker (SS), Chris Mayer (RP), Kevin Weathers (RP), Miguel Mondesi (CF), Orlando Molina (3B), Rickey Reed (OF)

Last Season: 81-81, 1st place AL East
Runs: 755 (12th)
ERA: 4.34 (8th)
Fielding: .988 (T2nd) 57/30 +/-

Conclusion: The betelnut lost their last 8 games of the regular season in season 19, and then promptly got swept in the first round of the playoffs. The offense will need to improve to better last years record, in the regular season as well as the post-season.


TRENTON:
FA Signings: George Taylor (P), Mac Davis (IF)
Taylor was signed away from Pawtucket where he worked in the bullpen. Mac Davis has a fantastic agent.

Trade Acquisitions: Dude Lanigan (CF)
Dude roamed the center field in St. Louis with his below average glove. He looks to do the same in Trenton.

Losses: None

Last Season: 79-83 2nd place AL East
Runs: 857 (4th)
ERA: 4.97 (13th)
Fielding: .984 (T8th) 62/36 +/-

Conclusion: Several good young players in AAA may be the difference for Trenton. They should still be able to score runs, but I think the pitching staff will need more than a pedestrian George Taylor to significantly improve from season 19’s ERA.


CLEVELAND:
FA Signings: Daniel Groom (P), Skip Allensworth (RP), Timothy Hall (2B)
None of these players are impact players.

Trade Acquisitions: None

Losses: Don Matheson ( C), Eddie Trammell (SP)

Last season: 69-93 3rd AL East (as Dover)
Runs: 749 (11th)
ERA: 5.13 (12th)
Fielding: .984 (T6th) 64/24 +/-

Conclusion: The 9 Rule V selections this season telegraph the rebuilding intentions of the Lake Shores. They should not content for the division title.



Pittsburgh:
FA Signings: Yoo-nah Masato (RP)
Masato struggled a bit in Richmond last season, but should do well for the Pushovers.

Trade Acquisitions: None

Losses: Omar Fernandez (SP), Brandon Bell (SS), Will Davis (2B/CF)

Last season: 53-109 4th in AL East
Runs: 665 (14th)
ERA: 4.93 (12th)
Fielding: .985 (T5th) 72/27 +/-

Conclusion: The young Pushovers aren’t quite ready yet. They do have some pieces at AAA. They do continue to maintain a quality defense, even as the rest of the team lags behind in production.


Hypno’s Projected Order of Finish:
1. Jacksonville
2. Trenton
3. Pittsburgh
4. Cleveland

Season 20 Preview - AL North

FARGFARGO:
FA signings: Luis James (closer), Orlando Molina (3B/IF), Sammy Mesa (OF), JR Hamelin (SS)

James is merely the best closer in the history of all HBD. Maybe his most special quality at this point is that his ratings really haven’t taken a hit with his age (37).
Molina and Mesa are both vets in their mid-30’s, but can still be effective role players on the right team.
Hamelin looks to be an effective fielding SS, albeit with a below average glove for the position. Although signed to a $3.5m contract, he has not played above AA.

Trade Acquisitions: Jamey Williams (SP), Richard Tanaka (3B)
Williams is in his prime and could challenge for the Cy Young in the AL. Tanaka, only 24, is the prototypical third basemen with power, but with the added bonus of playing excellent defense.

Losses: Felix Suppan, Midre Owen, Brian Yosida

Last season: 79-83, 2nd place in the AL North
Runs: 747 (14th in AL)
ERA: 4.34 (7th in AL)
Fielding: .983 (11th in AL) 56/33 +/-

Conclusion: With the addition of Williams and James, finishing below .500 again is an unlikely outcome. The offense needs to pick it up and Tanaka at 3rd should help replace the departing Suppan. There are 2-3 high quality players in AAA that may begin with the team or contribute as the season progresses. They may be the factor that wrests the division away from Buffalo.




BUFFALO:
FA Signings: Deion Long (P)
A quiet off-season for the reigning division champs, Long is a 36 year old SP most recently with Atlanta.

Trade Acquisitions: None

Losses: Rodney Franklin, BC Cabrera

Last season: 85-77, 1st place in AL North
Runs: 844 (5th)
ERA: 4.58 (10th)
Fielding: .982 (12th) 32/84 +/-

Conclusion: Not much has changed with Buffalo and that may not be a good thing as Fargo looks poised to do something about the Bulldozers championship.



PHILADELPHIA:
FA Signings: Don Matheson ( C),
Matheson is a solid backstop, but not much more. The 33 year old signed for $7m over 2 years.

Trade Acquisitions: Sidney Tessmer (SP), Yorman Rijo (OF), Tony Porter (OF)
Tessmer is a top of the rotation SP, and should immediately help a struggling staff. The 2 position players are both young and should contribute.

Losses: Scott Prior (DH), Roy Morgan (P)

Last season: 61-101, 4th place AL North
Runs: 824 (8th)
ERA: 6.23 (13th)
Fielding: .978 (13th) 22/100 +/1

Conclusion: The run production looks to remain roughly the same. The addition of Tessmer would be huge to any staff, but is especially important to the lackluster Hawks squad. However, it’s not likely to make impact in the standings, especially with so few prospects in AAA.



DETROIT:
FA Signings: David Dong (1B/LF)
Dong looks to platoon with Marty Steele - that’s right, a Steele/Dong combo worthy of Burroughs (or Becker and Fagen).

Trade Acquisitions: Chris Mayer (RP), Damion Tabaka (RP), Lon Hampton (SP), PT Rosario (2B), Nigel Walker (SS)
Busy on the trade front but not in free agency, the North Stars will have some new faces for season 20. Mayer (a lefty) was swapped to Jacksonville for a similar RH closer. Tabaka has not pitched in the majors but looks to hold down a setup B role. Hampton is a veteren RH SP who may have control issues, but he should pitch a lot of innings. Rosario hopes to steal 100 bases again, while Walker looks to improve defense at the SS position.

Losses: Marcus Simontacchi (SP), Wayne Barrett (SP), Chipper James (2B), Lenny Small (OF), Ramon Ryu (SS/3B)

Last Season: 78-84, 3rd place AL North
Runs: 834 (7th)
ERA: 4.88 (11th)
Fielding: .986 (T4th) 70/32 +/-

Conclusion: The bullpen looks strong, and the rotation looks a little better as well so maybe the pitching will do well enough to improve upon last seasons’ franchise worst record. The lineup composition is different but not radically so.

Hypno’s Projected Order of Finish:
1. Fargo
2. Buffalo
3. Detroit
4. PhillyO:
FA signings: Luis James (closer), Orlando Molina (3B/IF), Sammy Mesa (OF), JR Hamelin (SS)

James is merely the best closer in the history of all HBD. Maybe his most special quality at this point is that his ratings really haven’t taken a hit with his age (37).
Molina and Mesa are both vets in their mid-30’s, but can still be effective role players on the right team.
Hamelin looks to be an effective fielding SS, albeit with a below average glove for the position. Although signed to a $3.5m contract, he has not played above AA.

Trade Acquisitions: Jamey Williams (SP), Richard Tanaka (3B)
Williams is in his prime and could challenge for the Cy Young in the AL. Tanaka, only 24, is the prototypical third basemen with power, but with the added bonus of playing excellent defense.

Losses: Felix Suppan, Midre Owen, Brian Yosida

Last season: 79-83, 2nd place in the AL North
Runs: 747 (14th in AL)
ERA: 4.34 (7th in AL)
Fielding: .983 (11th in AL) 56/33 +/-

Conclusion: With the addition of Williams and James, finishing below .500 again is an unlikely outcome. The offense needs to pick it up and Tanaka at 3rd should help replace Suppan. There are 2-3 high quality players in AAA that may begin with the team or contribute as the season progresses. They may be the factor that wrests the division away from Buffalo.

BUFFALO:
FA Signings: Deion Long (P)
A quiet off-season for the reigning division champs, Long is a 36 year old SP most recently with Atlanta.

Trade Acquisitions: None

Losses: Rodney Franklin, BC Cabrera

Last season: 85-77, 1st place in AL North
Runs: 844 (5th)
ERA: 4.58 (10th)
Fielding: .982 (12th) 32/84 +/-

Conclusion: Not much has changed with Buffalo and that may not be a good thing as Fargo looks poised to do something about the Bulldozers championship.



PHILADELPHIA:
FA Signings: Don Matheson ( C),
Matheson is a solid backstop, but not much more. The 33 year old signed for $7m over 2 years.

Trade Acquisitions: Sidney Tessmer (SP), Yorman Rijo (OF), Tony Porter (OF)
Tessmer is a top of the rotation SP, and should immediately help a struggling staff. The 2 position players are both young and should contribute.

Losses: Scott Prior (DH), Roy Morgan (P)

Last season: 61-101, 4th place AL North
Runs: 824 (8th)
ERA: 6.23 (13th)
Fielding: .978 (13th) 22/100 +/1

Conclusion: The run production looks to remain roughly the same. The addition of Tessmer would be huge to any staff, but is especially important to the lackluster Hawks squad. However, it’s not likely to make impact in the standings, especially with so few prospects in AAA.



DETROIT:
FA Signings: David Dong (1B/LF)
Dong looks to platoon with Marty Steele - that’s right, a Steele/Dong combo worthy of Burroughs (or Becker and Fagen).

Trade Acquisitions: Chris Mayer (RP), Damion Tabaka (RP), Lon Hampton (SP), PT Rosario (2B), Nigel Walker (SS)
Busy on the trade front but not in free agency, the North Stars will have some new faces for season 20. Mayer (a lefty) was swapped to Jacksonville for a similar RH closer. Tabaka has not pitched in the majors but looks to hold down a setup B role. Hampton is a veteran RH SP who may have control issues, but he should pitch a lot of innings. Rosario hopes to steal 100 bases again, while Walker looks to improve defense at the SS position.

Losses: Marcus Simontacchi (SP), Wayne Barrett (SP), Chipper James (2B), Lenny Small (OF), Ramon Ryu (SS/3B)

Last Season: 78-84, 3rd place AL North
Runs: 834 (7th)
ERA: 4.88 (11th)
Fielding: .986 (T4th) 70/32 +/-

Conclusion: The bullpen looks strong, and the rotation looks a little better as well so maybe the pitching will do well enough to improve upon last seasons’ franchise worst record. The lineup composition is different but not radically so they shouldn't do any worse on offense.

Hypno’s Projected Order of Finish:
1. Fargo
2. Buffalo
3. Detroit
4. Philly